Thursday, September 25, 2008

more admissions...the bailout

I know. You're thinking...oh god, first it was Nebraska football, what can it be now?


I am a structured finance geek.

Yeah. Stunned?

There are probably several of you who look like cartoons with a big ole' bubble over your head and that bubble contains a "?" Right? And some of you are thinking, "What? Wait. She likes pink pashminas and has a bag and shoe obsession and she lives in the Midwest, for gosh sake. Structured finance people are on Wall Street, with pocket protectors. (Or Armani suits.)" And then there are some of you who have already pressed "exit" and are outta here because you don't want to read a blog containing the phrase "structured finance".

For those of you who are still here, what I mean is that most of my litigation work surrounds situations like the current mess in the financial markets. That stuff is what I do, people. Well, at least I clean up the messes left by what is in the news. And to further clarify, what is in the news hasn't hit litigation yet...it's still too early for people to be suing each other much. In fact, I'm still working on the last bubble burst...most people don't even know about it. In 1998-99? Asian market drying up? Blah, blah, blah. Yeah. I'm losing more of you, aren't I?

So why am I telling you this? Well, because it's all over the news, silly. And I need to throw in my two cents.

First of all, if go read this. It's really a pretty accurate, simplified explanation for what's gone wrong.

So here is my two cents: the government has to do something. Nothing is not an option. Trust me. I'm not going to pretend I know what that something is. But they can't just leave it. You will not like the results of doing nothing. And I'm not necessarily in favor of bailing out the banks in their current incarnation. Without change in oversight, throwing more money at our current institutions is not going to fix anything. We've had the fox guarding the hen house, folks. Nothing's going to change until someone shoots that damn fox--or at least traps him, hauls him out into the forest and drops him someplace where he can't do anymore harm.

And what does that ultimately mean? It means that ugly 10 letter word--regulation. Yup, seriously. Maybe that means government needs to get bigger. It definitely means government needs to do a better job. But this let them run amuck stuff? It's not working.

But here is my oversimplified view. This nation is drunk on credit. Most people borrow too much. Most companies borrow too much. The government spends more than it should. Example...when the government decided we consumers weren't spending enough and they wanted to give us a tax rebate? The government borrowed the money from the Chinese. Brilliant.

Quite frankly, we've just got to stop all the spending. Truth? Not everyone can afford a house. This means, not everyone should own a home. That's what rentals are for. (I sound very Republican. I know.) More truth? Not every kid needs a Wii. Truth? Borrowing...including credit cards...must be used very carefully. Truth? Almost everyone in this country, including our leaders (and me), spends too much and saves too little.

So if we are drunk on credit, what's the solution? Let's take that drinking analogy a little farther. If you are drunk, how do you get undrunk?

You quit drinking.

And if you are addicted, quitting will suck.

And even if you aren't addicted, you will have a hang-over.

There is really no way of avoiding the hang-over.

I mean you can drink more and avoid it for bit, but ultimately?

It's going to hurt.

In other words, I don't believe that more credit makes sense. Sure, we need to keep liquidity in the market. But we do not need to keep making home loans to people who cannot afford the houses they want. We should not keep offering more credit cards. We all...individually and as a government...need to learn to live within our means. And that can pinch... which is another word for hurt.


Just my take on stuff.

It's a banking house (the First Bank of the United States, 1795-1797, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania).


After thought...I know this is easy for me to say. I make good money. And I've worked very hard to get here. I borrowed for my education and I'm still paying it back. Yes, it's hard to look someone in the eye and say, "You just can't have what I have." I do believe that everyone deserves the basics--food, shelter, clothing. But ownership and perks? They aren't needs. We try to teach our kids the difference between need and want. But I'm not sure most people remember that difference. For someone living on the margin, it's a very important distinction.

12 comments:

Russ said...

As a staunch conservative, the Republicans are dead to me, I agree with you. The original idea of $700b with out any oversight is just nuts. I hate the idea of a larger government, but it just may be needed in this case.

Credit is good when used responsibly (alcohol is good when drunk responsibly, just check out the benefits of red wine), but moderation is the key. We got our mortgage on one income, even though both of us were employed, and got a 30 year fixed, not one of the crazy interest only or five year ARMs. But then, I'm an accountant.

We pay ourselves first, then our bills. We pay off our credit cards every month (some times a day late, and it pisses me off when I do that).

I'll shut up now. Both parties are to blame and I will leave it at that.

Leslie said...

Russ, Car-man is an accountant too!

Anonymous said...

Thank You. Someone needs to explain this shit to me. I have been one of the lucky ones, but it won't last much longer. Time to pour the bottles out.

Russ said...

But the odd thing is, the wife pays the bills! Or at least she used to, until I became a SAHD. She would look at me and say, "But you are the accountant, why aren't you paying the bills?"

I would respond with, the CFO of a company doesn't pay the bills, but is responsible for the 30,000 ft view of the money. No nookie for me that night.

cIII said...

Can't we Barter? I'll give you 5 gallons of beer for that Pig. I'll mow your grass for some of your Tomato seeds.
Howz about 3 lbs of frozen Rainbow Trout for a chord of that Firewood?

I think I was born in the wrong Era.

We said adios to our CC's a long time ago. Still paddling upstream though. But further away from the Falls.

It's like the Wu says (Wu-Tang): Cash Rules Everything Around Me. CREAM - get the Money....Dolla Dolla Bill Y'all.

Carolyn...Online said...

Oh Laggin... My husband, the brazilliant stock trader (NOT broker, not banker - trader) has been screaming at the wind about this forEVER. Take what you just wrote, add about 50 sentences that I don't understand, a few choice curse words and you have my daily dinner lecture. Ugh.

Leslie said...

Carolyn...just take my alcohol analogy and throw it back at him (pretend it's your own) and see if he looks at you with stars in his eyes!

MsPicketToYou said...

While admitting that "structured" is used in my vocabulary very infrequently, you know what bothers me? The Hamptons-house buying Nantucket plane-hopping crowd will be allowed to carry on with a tsk-tsk. The folks who perhaps foolishly entered into mortgages they couldn't afford because it's not real money is it will get some cushioning.

And the rest of us? Struggling to save for college, cutting up the credit cards (save for one -- for "emergencies" -- and airfare) get what? A big headache and a mounting lack of faith.

I'm taking four advil and a shot of b-12.

DKC said...

From someone who has not used credit prudently in the past and who is trying, and trying, to learn from our mistakes - very good post. I especially loved the stick figure explanation!

We are often on the edge and living week to week,(SO annoying when you make decent money - but again, our own bed so to speak.)

Maybe russ can take over our bills too?

LiteralDan said...

You are spewing only truth, but will they hear it? I ranted about this myself the other day, but I am 80% sure most of the major Washington power brokers don't read my blog.

I love Russ' comments (especially the zinger on his wife), especially the part where he said he's conservative but hates the Republicans. I wish more conservatives would come out and admit this.

I have a lot of conservative tendencies, but I'm not wacko enough to indulge them when they would empower all these "neo-con" maniacs. Maybe next century, huh?

Manager Mom said...

I agree with you. And I am annoyed with the Republicans right now for opposing the bailout because it's politically expedient, without having the balls to explain to the American people WHY it needs to be done.

Anonymous said...

I thought you'd like the Subprime Primer presentation.

Once again, you have said this quite well. As for me, I see a major flaw in the bailout that nobody is talking about...how is this plan going to "make money?" The seem to be making some very important (and flawed) assumptions such as: all of the borrowers in these "bad loans" want to stay in their homes; none of the "bad loans" were the product of fraud from the outset; none of the "bad loans" were flippers who were trying to take advantage of the market and got stuck...

lots of people live in homes way beyond their means, drive cars that are much nicer than they can really afford, etc. I think you're right, that it is an addiction. We need to get back to basics, get rid of the mortgage brokers and totally clean that industry up. Hold them accountable for the loans they originate.

In the meantime, maybe we can boost the economy by building bigger prisons for the executives of these lending institutions...they just might need a place to live when the dust settles.